The Effects of Climate Change

One of the reasons "global warming" is such a poor term for "climate change" is that it gives folks a wrong impression. Yes, all of the greenhouse gasses that we've been releasing are warming up the earth, but this doesn't mean that the entire globe will be getting equally warm. Quite the contrary! As any New Englander can tell you, this indeterminable winter has been a cold and snowy one, leading lots of glib conservatives to quip "What Global Warming?" The reality is that our current pattern is a direct result of climate change. Pete Bouchard, the head Meteorologist for Boston's WHDH, puts it this way:

There are many reasons for stalled weather patterns, but I believe the biggest is the lack of sea ice from climate change. An open ocean leaves a lot of heat in the poles. This fosters high pressure (or blocks in the jetstream), and with very little movement to weather patterns at the top and bottom of the globe, we get pinned down in these long periods of heavy precipitation/drought and hot or cold.

Click the link to see an interesting graphic showing this effect.

Another result of climate change is the probable increase in extremely strong Atlantic storm surges (think Katrina):

Aslak Grinsted who works at the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen... proposes [in his paper] a new combined model to prognosticate hurricane surge threats — one that compares the record of hurricane activity in the Atlantic based on storm surge statistics (extracted from tide gauges) to changes in global temperature patterns. ... If the average global temperature increases by 0.4 degrees Celsius, we can expect to see a doubling in the frequency of storm surges like the one following Katrina.

Grim stuff! But this isn't really news; scientists have been predicting the dire effects of climate change for some time. Hell, pick up any issue of Sierra Magazine for the gory details. The question is what are we going to do about it? And the answer appears to be, i'm afraid, not much at all.

Governmental Roles in Disaster Relief

Now that it appears that the worst of Sandy's destruction has passed, the cleanup has begun. A good chunk of the work is being done, directed by, or funded by the federal government. So it's worth noting that Mitt Romney and most of the GOP have for some time now been promoting the dissolution or de-funding of emergency-relief agencies like FEMA. Johnathan Cohn details the role the feds play in the disaster and what removing this line of defense would mean. Money quote:

States do many things well and, frequently, the most successful federal programs are the ones that let states innovate or take charge in those instances when they are positioned to do so. Emergency management happens to be one of them: Fulgate’s mantra at FEMA is to let states take the lead, with the federal government giving them the tools to do their job. But even programs like FEMA require presidential-level commitment to a vibrant bureaucracy and, yes, serious federal spending. And that’s not something Romney, or his allies, endorse. On the contrary, one of Romney's core campaign commitments is a cap on federal spending that would require drastic cuts to domestic spending. If Romney sought to spare FEMA, as he has other popular programs, that’d simply mean more cuts to other programs—from food inspections to health clinics to air traffic control—on which public safety and well-being depend.

Romney really does believe that the private sector could take the place of the government. But I wonder what private company would have the resources to offer major disaster insurance, how much it would cost, and who could afford it. I also wonder what would happen to the many, many people who most likely would not be able to afford that insurance. IMO, a healthy (and not over-strong) federal government is necessary for these large-scale areas of public interest, like infrastructure, health care, and disaster relief. By deferring these costs onto all of us, we make them manageable while also recognizing economies of scale.

Drought is the New Normal?

The evidence continues to pile up about how climate change is affecting weather patterns across the United States. It's been affecting temperatures, and now it's manifesting itself as the severe weather incidents and droughts facing large sections of the country. For proof, check out these pictures of how low the Mississippi River is this year. It's a dramatic depiction of how much this year's weather is affecting things. And the uncertainty about what's the new normal continues.

Whoever Just Sat Down has Decided to Die

Be sure to read this excerpt from Francis Slakey's "To the Last Breath: A Memoir of Going to Extremes." It's described as a description of "...the myriad physical and mental challenges in summiting the world's highest peak." The scene described in this small portion contains a confrontation between Buddhism and science in the dire conditions at the top of the world. To wit:

As he sits in the snow, reflecting back on his days, he is reassured by one simple fact: he is a good man. That, to him, can mean only one thing. He will be reincarnated into a life no worse than what he has had. His conclusion, then, is that he can be calm amid the chaos. Buddhism is his universal health coverage. ...
Reincarnation is a wonderfully serene worldview. But I don’t buy it.

Riveting stuff!

Summer Began on Sunday

If you're at a carnival in 80 degree weather, it's summer time. I refuse to hear anything different. 

Irene's Aftermath

Here in Massachusetts, we mainly escaped any damage from hurricane Irene. We lost power for six hours, had to watch our basement very carefully, and clean up some downed tree limbs, but for us it was mainly just a really bad storm.

Pity those in Vermont who are dealing with something much, much worse. All of the major rivers in the state are flooding, leading to horrible conditions that everyone's comparing to the huge floods of 1927. Matt Sutkoski gives us some of the gory details, including the stunning fact that "...many places had well over five inches of rain in 18 hours. I saw a report of 7.15 inches in Randolph Center." Just an awful situation.

Time for Autumn

It's my favorite time of year, and is why I appreciated Morgan Meis' write up of the season with regards to Pieter Bruegel's painting "Return of the Herd." She begins:

The cool wind coming in from the north, the piles of dead leaves crunching under foot, the sun that hangs lower in the sky with each passing day. It is easy to forget that all these changes used to point to something. The approach of autumn was the transformation in a mode of life, moving us from the work of the last days of the harvest to the hunkering down in preparation for winter.

It is amazing, even now, how quickly the shift in seasons stimulates a transformation of mood. The mind is pulled along by forces lurking in the weather—in the sun and the moon, in the otherwise-unnoticed messages from the grass and the trees. We are changing, they say, and so shall you. You simply can’t feel the same on an autumn day as you might feel on one of those bright, intrusive days of early spring.

Extreme Rain due to Climate Change

To follow up a bit on my last post, we should be clear about the cause of the torrential rainstorms that southeast New England just suffered through: the scientists say it was due to climate change. To wit, here's Dr. Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, talking on NPR:

Mr. TRENBERTH: The fact that the oceans are warmer now than they were, say, 30 years ago, means there’s about, on average, 4 percent more water vapor lurking around over the oceans than there was, say, in the 1970s.
JOYCE: Warmer water means more water vapor rises up into the air. And what goes up, must come down.
Mr. TRENBERTH: So one of the consequences of a warming ocean near a coastline like the East Coast and Washington, D.C., for instance, is that you can get dumped on with more snow, partly as a consequence of global warming.

Climate Progress has an extensive post detailing how extreme this weather event was, especially in Rhode Island. It's staggering:

Record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor’easter have triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32″ of rain that has fallen on Providence, Rhode Island this month is the most rain recorded in any month, besting the previous record of 15.38″ set in October 2005. ... The Rhode Island all-time state record for heaviest precipitation in a month was smashed as well, thanks to the 19.62″ observed this March at North Kingstown. The old state record was 16.70″, set at North Foster in October 2005. Many locations in the Northeast recorded their wettest March ever, including New York City and Boston.

This is not the time to live in denial. Climate Change is real and it will continue to affect us all.

Epic Levels of Water

My god:

By dawn, the unparalleled flood had transformed the Rhode Island landscape into islands of isolation, the region’s web of roadways broken, whole sections of neighborhoods stranded and without power.
Gridlock greeted thousands of commuters weaving like mice through a maze of alternate routes around Route 95, the state’s most vital transportation artery, closed in Warwick by the flooding Pawtuxet River.
And with a half-dozen sewage treatment plants compromised or overwhelmed by the most destructive flood in the state’s recorded history, officials braced for an environmental disaster with huge public health and financial ramifications.
Governor Carcieri shut down state government and urged people to stay home. In the epicenter of grief –– the Pawtuxet River basin where hundreds of homes were already submerged –– the water continued to rise to levels never before seen.

Makes my little adventure with wet carpets downstairs seem like a cakewalk. These storms have had no equal in the recorded history of the Boston/Providence region.